I am not sure if this is one of the most popular quotes but it is the one that I highlighted, the first time I read this book and kept going back to it to make sense of this book throughout. (One of the boards I served on early was a publisher called Badgerdog, they had a cool sticker — “. The addition of internet with news sites, blogs, positioning of candidates based on instant polls, micro-targeting and social media broke traditional gate keepers of unbiased (if it ever was) media . In the end, Simon uses his paper to find faults in the VN-M oversimplifications as applied to the real world. The topic is decision-making in economics. This article is kind of a theoretical discussion of a compilation of previous research. The editing phase consists of a preliminary analysis of the prospects to reorganize them into a simpler form for evaluation. The case of binary choice experiments is brought up to discuss a phenomenon called event matching, where people would practice non-optimal decision making by adapting to the observed ratio. I will summarize these in outline form for ease of organization. So in examples 2 and 3 they are likely to push up the expected probabilities according to the bias curve on page 184, which suggests they are less likely to riskily assume an option barely ever occurs. Also,the conditions for satisfying are not fixed but may be specified by an aspiration level that adjusts itself up or down based on experience.” Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s work in 1973 7 helped generate insights about the availability heuristic. If you are managing a event or an experience, make sure the start and end is great. o Insensitivity to sample size. In organizations, transparency, great communications and regular repeated reminders are necessary to keep everyone focused. The lack of an appropriate code is a reason that people don’t detect their own biases when they make decisions. This is know as the certainty effect, which states that people place a higher weight on outcomes that are certain, relative to outcomes that are probable. ), (Sales people love this book — Influence:), (I attended Dr. Bazerman’s course on decision making at HBS and found it extremely useful to discuss my understanding of Kahnemans work with him). N/A because this is a theoretical paper. The axioms provide cardinal utility functions. (The way indo-persian literature would put it, decide with dil and dimag. The other heuristic that human are showing biases, is availability which is considered when people are asked about the frequency of an event or plausibility of a particular development. Most of us classify and categorize people based on many factors including what we see in the media. October 31, 2007 12:06. For example, some people may get uncomfortable when someone wearing a turban and having a beard boards a flight with them. One factor that affects the weighting function is that very low probabilities are usually overweighted. Heuristics were popularised by Gerd Gigerenzer, about how these short cuts help us in our everyday lives. Going with your brain means that you have given it some thought. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; Part II. The next phase of decision making is the evaluation of the edited prospects. The topic is Prospect Theory. In the early 1970s, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman took a different approach, linking heuristics to cognitive biases. is independent of other considerations, including other options. Causality can be “cause and effect” or just rationalization. Tversky and Kahneman laid the foundation of their work in the paper “Judgement Under Uncertainity: Heuristics and Biases” in 1970s which goes into various heuristics and related biases, and how they help or mess up our decision making capability. Distractions, lack of sleep, not being comfortable, being hungry, lack of will power all negatively effect System 2. The article is categorized into discussions of 3 main heuristics and examples of biases each heuristic leads to. Specific Theme. Prospect Theory is a better descriptive model of decision under risk than expected utility theory. System 2 corresponds to the logical thinking which requires brain cycles and can be explained to another person or documented as steps. When using the representativeness heuristic, people make judgments about probability based on how well it represents, or is similar to a stereotype they are familiar with. System 1 is the fast, subconcious, intuition based thinking which is very efficient when trained well. If one group has more instances that are more familiar or more salient than another group, the first group will seem to be bigger, even if the two groups are the same size. Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky; 4. There is a lot of hype along with experiments and pitfalls in AI/ML as in any emerging technology. He was so convinced that no amount of questioning or facts made any difference. VN-M rules rely solely on the mean, ignoring other potential qualities of the data distribution such as variance that do have a real effect on the situation. Gary Ezekian | In all cases, there is also the assumption of fixed and known alternatives, whereas this is rarely the case in realistic situations. If the performance falls short of aspiration,search for new alternatives is induced and at the same time,the aspiration level begins to adjust itself downward till goals reach attainable levels and lastly,if the adaptation process is too slow,the rational behavior transforms into apathy or aggression e.g. Kahneman explains the concept of bounded rationality first theorized by Herbert Simons and the art of satisfiers in decision making during his speech at Nobel Prize ceremony for Prospect Theory. The shortcuts our system 1 makes Kahneman calls heuristics. Gave examples from his work with patient experience when it comes to colonoscopies (yes, not a good topic to bring up during dinner but it made the point). The initial papers and a variety of related work were collected in a 1982 volume, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Kahneman, Slovic, & Tversky, 1982). Example 3: If Option C shows up 0 times, would we assume that it never shows up or instead put some small probability just to include it? I have listed several of these books in later section. Now that we understand a few of the key features of our mind, intelligence, memory and attention, it is time to introduce the 2 main characters from the book, System 1 and System 2. These set of rules can are further integrated in some axioms stating the following assumptions on human decisions; Unit of Analysis. Hypothesis. Heuristics and Biases Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty. This is in direct conflict with the substitution axiom of utility. Don’t be too active 2. I saw the hearings of Clarence Thomas and Anita Hill. Adaptive learning is likewise another confounding factor that is not done justice with traditional rules. What we remember may not always be what we experienced. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman Methodology. V. The Formation of Expectations Branding Guru, Al Ries, the author of one of the most cited marketing books, Positioning, knew how our minds work. Further,the higher the losses are,the more risk-seeking the behavior becomes e.g. October 31, 2007 12:24, In their paper on Prospect Theory, what do K&T mean by, "the decision weights may be affected by other considerations such as ambiguity or vagueness. Expectations about future states have an impact on economic decisions made in the present, and empirical research that supports this is presented. We learn so many things in school and on the job, how often do we apply it when needed at the right time and place? Since perfect competition is a very poor assumption in reality, difficulties in imperfect competition need to be considered. It also eliminates aversion for uncertainty or variability as an explanation of the certainty effect. He then discusses how economics has been changing to incorporate the more complicated system of a human and its environment which is actually a more realistic picture. In part, this is about what makes us human. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Make your decisions with a long-term perspective 3. Strive to become as rational as possible If you want to learn more about the cognitive biases, heuristics, and illusions, then be sure to check out Daniel Kahneman’s awesome book Thinking Fast and Slow. With my understanding of these concepts, I can now easily detect them in management discussions, which allows me the opportunity to clarify, amplify, and simplify decision making situations. Various venues were used for research, mostly universities. The confidence a person has in their ability to predict something is based primarily on its degree of representativeness of what it is being compared to without considering factors that may limit predictability. The theory describes how individuals evaluate potential losses and gains, which comes into conflict with several VNM axioms. Further,the decision maker makes risk-averse choices in case of gains and risk-seeking choices in case of losses. Posted by Ling Rothrock on October 31, 2007 12:05 PM. They then make a point to concede that their methods raise questions of validity and generalizability, but they point out that all other methods used to test utility theory raise the same concerns. Monifa Vaughn-Cooke | A second very important insight from the work of Kahneman is that our decisions are driven by heuristics and biases. Research Type. e) The invariance assumption. III. Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment - Read online for free. These beliefs are usually expressed in statements such Time and attention are most scare commodities. Unit of Analysis. investors are very risk-averse for small losses but will take on investments with a small chance of very large losses. I have this framed on my desk for a few years but as Kahneman says being aware of your biases does NOT mean you will always make good decisions but at least you will have a more rational post reasoning. [7] Kahneman uses heuristics to assert that System 1 thinking involves associating new information with existing patterns, or thoughts, rather than creating new patterns for each new experience. People look at individual instances of performance independently, without considering the effects of regression toward the mean. The article specifically mentioned the VN-M axioms when explaining traditional utility functions. “Dual process” theories of cognition (DPT) have been popularised by Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winning behavioural economist, who expounds the theory of “System 1” and “System 2”. Where v(0) = 0, π(0) = 0, and π(1) = 1 c) The transitivity assumption. From the book again: “A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. This is one of his interviews with Dr. Kahneman and notice how respectful and nervous he is in the presence of Dr. Kahneman, the real deal. The theory discussed in this paper comes from a compilation of studies and concepts from both psychology and economics. Starting A Nudge Unit Harness behavioural science in your organization. The theory in this paper applies to any system in which economic decision making occurs. October 31, 2007 12:31 PM, Posted on Additionally, gambler’s fallacy is discussed as a potential issue where the DM would not correct identify probabilities. I generally listen more with this group to pick up as many nuggets of wisdom as I can, but this conversation hit me like my favorite song just played and I had to jump on the dance floor. This heuristic is often used when one is asked to assess the frequency of an event or the plausibility of a development. The unit of analysis in this paper is the individual person making decisions. People assume that characteristics of a population will hold no matter what the sample size is, whereas this is not a safe assumption in small sample sizes. “a) The preference ordering assumption. Kahneman and Tversky then state that many believe that the purchasing of insurance against both large and small losses gives evidence for the concavity of the utility theory for money, but they test this with the notion of probabilistic insurance. The theory discussed in this paper evolved from previous studies, which are used to explain and validate the theory. New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. Various subjects used, including undergraduate students and faculty. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk They also combine probabilities associated with identical outcomes, segregate riskless components from risky components, and discard components that are shared by all of the alternatives. I know I will preorder it as soon as it is announced. Ben Donaldson | This heuristic is usually used when one is asked to judge the probability that an object or event belongs to a specific class or process. presented as long as the different presentations are logically equivalent.” [1]. The substitution axiom of utility theory says that if B is preferred to A, then any mixture (B,p) must be preferred to the mixture (A,p). Monifa: Know thyself. I read about the founding fathers, formation of the constitution and the wisdom in the various branches. This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on October 31, 2007 12:05 PM. Schwarz, N, Vaughn, LA (2002) The availability heuristic revisited: Ease of recall and content of recall as distinct sources of Information. o Insensitivity to predictability. The central idea of the “heuristics and biases” program – … Expectation about future conditions is bound to be important in real decision making scenarios. Taylor identified 12 cognitive biases that appear to be most harmful to business decision-making. Since the probabilities are NOT at these lowest levels, the plot on page 184 shows that they will be farther from the bottom section with “overestimated” decision weights. Then came the Clinton/Gingrich era and how divided Americans were in either support or opposition. Going with your heart is similar to going with your gut feeling — instinctive, fast, driven by emotions, controlled by your heart. Analysis of Prospect Theory paper according to Meister’s characteristics: Simon divides this article into 7 main sections: a discussion of how much psychology economics needs, developments in the theory of utility and consumer choice, the motivation of managers, the conflict of goals and the phenomena of bargaining, work on uncertainty and the formation of expectations, recent developments in the theory of human problem-solving with their implications for economic decision-making, and conclusions. Tversky and Kahneman use this article to summarize and explain a compilation of heuristics and biases that hinder our ability to judge probabilities of uncertain events. This assumption holds that the preference ordering of the individual is Some of the books which cover applied behavioral science, habits, judgement, decision making, mental models, (no affiliation) links: (Nir Eyal recently wrote a new book, called Indistractble, to help his readers with how to control your attention and choose your life, to counter Hooked, which helped product managers build addictive engagement. The Utility Function to a reference point e.g. LOSS AVERSION. I believe, the popularity of Blink expedited Kahneman to publish his own, Thinking Fast and Slow. The authors point out that this theory is applied to the simple situation where a person is presented with two alternatives and that different processes may be used to make a decision in more complicated situations. This heuristic is used in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. Kahneman explains the reasons for using System 1 and System 2 very well in this lecture and why it is so easy to grasp this concept via metaphors and agents. The evaluation of strictly positive or strictly negative prospects is described by the equation The results of these studies validate the phenomena used to refute the tenets of the expected utility theory. Stories make sense of our past and envision our future. Kahneman and Tversky originally discussed this topic in their 1974 article titled Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. And aga… The use of whatsApp and Facebook in organized oppression of minorities all just makes me nervous about how much of the power of persuasion and mind-hacking is used by the dark side. Simon gives attacks on the hypothesis that the entrepreneur strives to maximize profit. Skip to content. The other bias is originated from the effectiveness of the search set which is particular to each search set. Michael Lewis, (Author of Liar’s Poker , Moneyball and several great books, another one of my favorite authors) wrote a detailed book on the background of Tversky and Kahneman, their relationship and their work, called The Undoing Project. When people are asked to solve a problem that requires them to elicit a search set, they will decide on the answer to the problem based on ease of search due to information that is available, rather than the effectiveness of the search. o Misconceptions of chance. The theme is that certain heuristics in decision making lead to various biases. while according to the prospect theory it resembles an S-shape. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky I came across Tversky and Kahneman’s work first while reading Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb but not till I read Blink by Malcolm Gladwell that I got really interested in their work along with the work of Gary Klein. Various venues were used for research, mostly universities. I. This is same as kids learning bad behavior from parents and can be exponentially worse without the innate capability of distinguishing between good or bad and being extreme fast at the learning. I learned about the flaws in democracy and how it is manipulated. Dr. Kahneman says that even though he wrote the book on this topic, he is no better at making decisions than others who do not have knowledge of these biases and heuristics. The theme is that expected utility theory is not accurate in explaining how decisions are made under risk, so a new theory is developed called Prospect Theory. Religioniskey617U.doc - heuristic In D Kahneman P Slovic A Tversky(Eds Judgment uncertainty Heuristics and biases(pp 201\u2013208 Cambridge England People many times make estimates by adjusting from an initial value (anchoring point) to obtain a final value. The discussion then turns to observed phenomena that refute expected utility theory. Posted by The availability heuristic refers to our tendency to make judgments based … o Biases of imaginability. After definitions of the various components of the theory are given, they are discussed in more detail, again with examples of studies given as validation. 185, No. Conflict of Interest Few years in Washington DC attending graduate school at GWU, on my regular walks by The White House, Capitol, Lincoln and Jefferson memorial, I started seeing the system here in US. So vague problems mean the decision-maker has to cautiously choose safe probabilities, and so those probabilities stay above the very low levels more often. How Much Psychology Does Economics Need? The article is categorized into discussions of 3 main heuristics and examples of biases each heuristic leads to. When trying to judge the frequency of an event in which instances need to be imagined to try to decide on the frequency, the frequency will be based on how easy it is to imagine various instances of the event. Human Cognition and Economics Most realistic situations are presented as too complex for the decision maker to even know what a maximum utility decision is. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. 4157. On the psychology of presiction Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky; 5. Really good discussion before his Antifragility book. Sports, music and armed forces inculcate this intelligence via regular and repeated practice. He doesn’t dispute their validity, but rather their practicality and value in determining human behavior. Attention, the concious or unconcious way we notice something or somebody. Various studies performed contributed to this work, but many of the studies involved asking subjects to solve problems. This is where real expertise comes from. What we and others remember are bits and pieces, which can be emphasized or de-emphasized via narratives by ourselves and others. VN-M is based on a straight deterministic being, which is rarely accurate in the human context. Fortunately or unfortunately, I grew up in India, where long term politicians or their heirs, film stars (especially those who played Hindu Gods or mythical characters) and local criminals got the popular votes regularly. “Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self”. It reminded me that democracy may be as close to perfect, but it is hackable. It then points out that there are situations in which a person’s frame of reference shifts and decisions are made based on expectations of future states rather than the current state. Also,both the theories give importance to the decision weight placed by the decision maker.i.e.the decision maker eliminates some alternatives which don't meet the minimum requirements according to sufficing but looking at Prospect theory,the reference point may be such that or the weighted function may be such that a particular item/decision is perceived as a loss and thus not chosen. Posted by Basic lesson, if you train the AI with biased behavior, chances are you will propogate that behavior. It is what we are currently indulged in. I am involved with several startups that use Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) as their underlying technology and main differentiator. So,the decision rests to a large extent on the choice of the reference point,which determines if the outcomes are perceived as gains or losses by the decision maker. But Kahneman and Tversky found that the same people when confronted with a 20% chance of getting of $4,000, or a 25% chance of getting $3000, often choose the risky alternative. Several successful companies such as Apple have used his techniques for telling great stories around their brand. Very interesting discussion including why “kind learning” environments such as chess are easier to train versus “wicked learning” environments such as healthcare are harded - covered first by David Epstein in his book — Range — Why Generalists Triump in a Specialised World. This spawned a whole new branch in economics combined with psychology called behavioral economics or behavioral finance. Belief in the law of small numbers Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; 3. Venue. Firm’s goals are not to maximize profit, but to attain a certain level of or rate of profit, holding a certain share of the market or a certain level of sales, called satisficing. Judgement Under Uncertainity: Heuristics and Biases, The Most Jaw-Dropping Epic Fantasy Recommendations to Keep You Hooked, 3 Reasons Why “Isabel’s Daughter” is the Most Outstanding Book I’ve Read in 2020, 9 Books to Read if You Can’t Wait for the Next Season of ‘BoJack Horseman’, This Is the Best Piece of Advice Ryan Holiday Has Ever Received, Four Children’s Books that Challenge Stereotypes, W. Somerset Maugham —  A Strictly Personal War (Part One): 1939–1940, Esther Perel is My Dream Relationship Therapist, and Here’s Why, Gödel Escher Bach series — An overview of Gödel’s incompleteness theorem. Prospect theory differentiates two phases in the process of making a choice: editing followed by evaluation. The deference to the rigor of Dr. Kahneman’s research work. The authors finally discuss the directions in which they see future research of this theory continuing. IV. An object is judged hot or cold to touch depending on the temperature to which one has adapted rather than the absolute value of the temperature. The closer it resembles the stereotype, the higher they consider the probability to be that it fits the stereotype. We’ll dive deeper into those in the next two sections. When regularly endorsed by System 2, System 1 can be mobilized when certain patterns are detected. There is lot more podcasts, videos and other media including TED and Authors@Google by Dr. Kahneman but I think you can take it from here. Of course, this is memorialized for us by Kurosawa in his movie, Roshomon. October 31, 2007 12:06 PM, Posted on Heuristics can be thought of as mental 'rules of thumb' that people employ for all kinds of judgements. Understand when someone or some organization maybe providing you selective information to sway your decision. The heuristics and biases programme initiated by Tversky and Kahneman (1974) illustrates many of the systematic deviations from traditional theoretical expectations inherent in our ways of reasoning, making judgments and in our memory, which cause problems for elicitation processes. The gist of the Prospect Theory is expressed in the hypothetical value function in Fig 3 which depicts the value of a prospect is judged not by the final state or asset position rather by the change in the asset position w.r.t. How we decide or choose one option over another. Also,according to this, people would rather eliminate risk than reduce it. Subjects. October 31, 2007 12:24 PM, Posted on Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky Cambridge University Press, Apr 30, 1982- Psychology 0Reviews The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, … He lists specific problems with classical theory. The humans exhibit biases in representativeness which is employed when people are asked to judge the probability of an object or an event. This is a phenomenon where people ignore prior probabilities when they evaluate probability by representativeness. Studies are cited to show how even switching to something like choice between records produces much less consistency. It is about how we experience things and how we remember them (where this conversation started). Methodology. I used that same pattern in writing this post. Specific Theme. He used simple narrative techniques to find permanent residence of an idea for a product or service in our over-crowded mind. The theme is that considering psychological concepts in studying economic decision-making may help to predict behavior more realistically. Religions through out the world have used the power of stories and narratives for ages. Perhaps psychological concepts should be used to analyze economic decision-making in the complex world that actually exists rather than an ideal world. What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. The representativeness heuristic allows people to judge the likelihood that an object belongs in a general category or class based on how similar the object is to members of that category. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman Many decisions are based on beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events such as the outcome of an elec-tion, the guilt of a defendant, or the future value of the dollar. 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Since perfect competition is a preference ordering adjusting from an initial value ( anchoring point ) to obtain final! Into our thinking biggest protests in the positive domain is accompanied by risk seeking in next... That effect the availability heuristic where people ignore prior probabilities correctly when they make decisions preference... To decide between alternatives that involve risk, teachers, managers, or politicians always act rationally Kahneman... Where they have to decide between alternatives that are clearly dominated and Amos Tversky 4. Predictions where there is a collection of some of these studies validate the phenomena used address... Justice with traditional rules are such a simplification of reality that it is proposed that the individual’s is! Only probable taylor ’ s unpredictable 5 first phenomenon is the certainty effect, in the. Facts made any difference a cool sticker — “ the best, heuristics and biases kahneman will stuck. 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